Michigan Football and the U.S. Economy: Taking the Long View
Anybody who is a fan of Michigan football knows that this is perhaps our worst year - ever. No, even the losing 1967 squad makes the current crop look like the junior varsity. So after so many years of success why the trouble? In short, regime change. The powers that be decided that it was time for change, to leave the Pro-style, five step drop passing game and a between-the-tackles running game for the Spread, a rapid-fire, cutting, quick-strike offense that relies on a mobile quarterback, quick-footed linemen super-fast decision-making. The view of the Administration was that it was worth finding the right guy with the right system for the long-term, even if it meant a near-term setback. Seeing Michigan run the Spread is a strange thing. It just doesn’t look right, at least not yet. When it was announced that a new leader was coming in, fully 18 scholarship players recruited by the last coach to fit in the prior system left. This created a skill vacuum that will take time to replace, as well as the time necessary to learn a completely new system. For those wanting current gratification, they will be sorely disappointed by Wolverine football for the foreseeable future. One year? Two years? Three years? Perhaps more. But notwithstanding the recent difficulties, Michigan has a tradition of winning. The institution and the community are supportive of the team; it is part of the cultural fabric of the school, and of the larger community. Make no mistake - with the benefit of time and support from the Administration, students, Alumni and the community, Michigan football will regain its winning ways.
I see a close analogy between Michigan’s plight and that of the U.S. economy. Economic conditions haven’t been this bad in decades, after an almost three-decade run of prosperity. The powers that be, namely, the voting-age citizens of the U.S., decided that it was time for change. We are clearly shifting to a new kind of regime, with the belief that it will be better for our country in the long run. And while there is uncertainty about a new leader, one quite different than those of the recent past, the voters spoke loud and clear. The staff surrounding the President will also change, creating a learning curve that requires time for getting fully productive. Given the economic perils facing those in the U.S. and abroad, dealing with change will be painful, the benefits of which may not be seen for several years. Those looking for a short-term fix will be out of luck, as the kinds of systemic changes required to regain our economic vitality take time to enact and an even longer perior to take effect. But make no mistake - with a definitive mandate from the American people and a supportive Congress, I think the odds are pretty good that the new President will succeed, with the help of time and an engaged and pragmatic legislative branch.
Sustainable success takes time. It is easy to get discouraged in the short-run, to want the losing (football games, stock prices, etc.) to stop and to feel better regardless of how it happens. If there is one thing that time has taught us, it is that quick fixes don’t yield lasting benefits. There is always a price to pay, whether it is through recruiting violations (by attracting talent using illegal means) or inflationary monetary policies (by pushing short rates towards zero and flooding the market with liquidity). We need to adopt a calmer, more balanced, longer-term mindset towards problems, and to internalize a very simple credo: you don’t get something for nothing. Whether the Lotto-based mentality prevalent across our society and in our Government can change is the real question.
