December 2007
22 posts
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We'll Always Have 2007
I’m checking out until the second week in January. Blackberry yes. Computer no. And a forced break from blogging. So I just wanted to take this opportunity to thank each and every one of you for participating in the online conversation, and sharing a little bit of yourselves with me. I have certainly tried to share some of myself with you. I’d guess you’d have a pretty good feel...
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From the Mailbag: When Was I The Happiest in My...
Just as I was pondering an end-of-year post, I received the following email from one of my readers:
For quite a long time, I have followed your blog. It has become a habit for me to read your articles for Wallstreet and tech issues. I can almost feel your enthusiasm radiating from my screen. There is a question that I want to ask you.
When were you happiest in your life?
Suffice it to say,...
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2007 in Review: The United States
The US is in trouble, and the trends are not good. The question is, with the mega-trends that are firmly in place – rapid economic expansion across Asia, a rapidly depleting supply of fossil fuels, a global threat to sustainable growth, and an aging population – is the US on an inexorable path downward that can only be checked and not stopped? A home-grown mortgage crisis and its worldwide ripple...
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Alphabet Soup and the Subprime Crisis
M-LEC. Super SIV. SWF. Kind of reminds me of banking “reform” in the late 1980’s - SAIF, BIF and other ridiculous acronyms representing entities that ultimately did little to help the underpinnings of the S&L crisis. The story of the day is the abandonment of the M-LEC structure, supported in spirit by the US Treasury but ultimately driven by the realities of the private...
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A Kindle for a Kanoodle?
Nah, just a Kindle for the lovely Lindsay to use on Wallstrip tomorrow. The taping will be in NYC and she needs the device for show-and-tell. If you got the goods, you might even get a cameo on the show. So for all you aspiring vlog actors, take note. Send your availability to the furry Mr. Howard Lindzon at his blog. And make Lindsay a happy vlog queen this holiday season.
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My Gloomy Thesis is Playing Out: Three from the...
I’ve been one of those on the stagflation bandwagon, deeply concerned about the weakness of the dollar, the likelihood of the Fed continuing to reduce rates in the face of locked-up credit markets, rising food and energy prices and persistent and rising deficits. This is a toxic macroeconomic cocktail I’ve written about and which has been the source of much worry. And to add insult to...
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EXPERT NETWORKS: Where is the industry going?
Gerson Lehrman is the big dog, but vertical communities, vertical search engines and alternative information platforms like Monitor110 are moving reputation-based information discovery online. And now the ad-based Google Knol.
Just where is this industry going? Who are the up-and-rising players, which models will prevail, and is it possible for anyone to knock Gerson Lehrman off of their...
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Google Knol: NOT Setting the World on Fire
Google has become the new EF Hutton: when it speaks, people listen. So when I first heard about Google Knol I was curious and intrigued: a true competitor to Wikipedia? A new spin on expert networks? An easier way to discover high value content? These are all areas about which I have a high degree of interest and some degree of knowledge. But after reading the description on the Official Google...
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The Right Venue for Online Discussion?
This blog? My Facebook groups? A couple of very pointed but sensible comments to my recent post made one thing clear: that this blog is where I should look to spur active conversations, not my Facebook groups. I am frankly confused, and would like to share two comments from yesterday’s post.
From Ian Wilson:
Why not just keep discussion centered on this blog? I am sure most of the people...
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My Use of Facebook Groups: IA Capital Partners and...
I have done a woeful job using these groups to stimulate discussion. I tossed out a few questions early on, generated some interesting dialog, and then stopped. Stupid. Sorry about that. So here is my pledge. I will use best efforts going forward to do the following:
IA Capital Partners Facebook group: Pose questions and offer commentary around what I am actually seeing in early-stage deal land,...
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A Different Approach to Early-Stage Investment
I admit it - I am green in the world of early-stage investing. Three years experience, 18 deals, $1.5 million invested, three exits (one has happened but is not yet disclosed). That said, I feel like I am in and around the early-stage investment scene enough and have done enough to have an opinion. And it is somewhat different than the classic VC definition of early-stage investing that I’m...
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VikWin Pandoff: A Few Cards Short of a Full Deck
Much has been written so I’ll keep it short: this won’t be pretty unless we’re looking at a bust-up of Citi. IMHO, the esteemed Mr. Pandit and Sir Bischoff lack the experience, perspective and people-skills to run the financial supermarket that is Citigroup circa 2007. To be precise, here is what I said when interviewed for a story that ran in today’s Washington Post:
A...
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In Defense of "Free"
The recent comScore numbers are in and the answer is pretty clear: The NYTimes.com won and won big, showing a 64% rise in readers and a 52% rise in page views over the last quarter. Why? The mid-September tear-down of the subscription edifice Times Select. TechCrunch carried the story yesterday and Marketing Pilgrim added onto it today. Here is Marketing Pilgrim’s interpretation of the...
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Is Old Lane Old News?
Now that it appears that Vik has nosed into the lead in the great Citigroup CEO race, what of Old Lane? When it came out that Citigroup was buying the new Old firm back in April, I had hypothesized that they were essentially paying an $800 million executive recruitment fee. Sure, there was spin that Citigroup’s alternatives business was going to broadly distribute the Old Lane product across...
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The Trading Game: Where Losers Can Win and Lose...
Swing big. Lose big. Get another chance to swing big again. This concept has always astounded me, dating back to Howard Rubin’s legendary $377 million swan dive back in May 1987, the year I began my Wall Street career. Mr. Rubin was a successful young mortgage trader at Salomon, jumped ship to make real money (around $1 million per year) at Merrill, and within two years dropped almost $400...
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Rating Agencies on Trial
Something is wrong when an entire industry teeters on the brink of destruction because of - what? - a change in credit rating. Consider the anxiety in and around the monoline insurers. The recent MBIA situation simply brought the point home: investors have given rating agencies too much power. Way, way too much power. Somehow, someway, large swaths of the investor landscape has effectively...
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"Hey Hank"
Now I know I’ve really lost it. My 10-year old son is practicing for his piano recital, and his chosen piece is “Hey Jude.” Which means, by definition, that I’ve heard it something like 300 times in the past month. Somehow, this repetitive playing provided the inspiration for me to adapt the Beatles tune into a commentary on Hank Paulson’s plight. I can safely say...
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Congratulations, Spotlight Data
I am happy to offer congratulations to my friends at Spotlight Data Solution, who were just acquired by Metastorm, a leader in BPM applications. Spotlight Data was one of my earliest angel investments, and I learned a tremendous amount both from the company and from my fellow outside Board member, Mike Zisman. Mike is a seasoned entrepreneur, senior corporate executive and early-stage investor,...
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Oh, The Pain - Falling Below Howard in the SA 100....
Just when I thought I had suffered the gravest of injustices, tying the not-so-dainty and not-too-dextrous Howard in the original Blackberry Thumb-off, I was alterted to this: that I am #90 on the Silicon Alley 100, and Mr. Lindzon is #61. I know, I know, when I heard that Howard was 61 I thought they were talking about his age but no, this is where he falls on the list.
Now Howard is very proud...
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Me on CNBC Talking Stein (When Not Being...
I was just on CNBC’s Closing Bell show debating Charlie Gasparino on the merits of Ben Stein’s position regarding Goldman Sachs and Jan Hatzius’ recent paper. Based on yesterday’s post, I think you all know where I stand on the topic. Mr. Gasparino, however, felt compelled to talk, talk, talk, and not debate, though I did take away from his monologue that he disagreed with...
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At the Intersection of Chinese Walls and Wall...
In his missive in today’s New York Times, Ben Stein does what many would like to do: call out Goldman Sachs and introduce some tarnish to its shiny reputation. The thrust of Mr. Stein’s argument is that one of Goldman Sachs’ leading economic analysts, Jan Hatzius, basically put out a puffy “fear piece” that would ultimately benefit the firm’s proprietary short...
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Trust and Reputation in Online and Offline Media:...
When ADIA’s $7.5 billion investment in Citigroup was announced and I saw how the transaction was depicted in mainstream media, I felt I had to blog it. MSMs portrayal of the deal was so off-base from an educated financial analyst’s perspective that I almost put my fist through my computer screen. But before I did, I surfed around the high-end financial blogs I consume to see what, if...